China, home to 22% of the 737 Max planes in operation so far, was the first nation to ground the plane.
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Airlines and industry in Asia are busy figuring out what the grounding of the 737 Max 8 planes made by The Boeing Co. (BA) means to their order books, flight paths and bottom line.
China was the first nation of 42 globally to order all 737 Max 8 planes to keep their wheels on the ground. It is home to 22% of the 350 aircraft of that model delivered around the world for service to date. Boeing has received 4,661 orders for the planes, according to the brokerage Nomura.
The main Chinese airlines with those planes now suspended from operation are Air China Ltd. (AIRYY) , China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. (CEA) and China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. (ZNH) . Shandong Airlines SH:200152, and the unlisted carriers Shenzhen Airlines and XiamenAir, also fly the plane.
Singapore has barred all Boeing 737 Max flights from its airspace. That effectively grounded all six of that aircraft for SilkAir, the Asia-specialist wholly-owned subsidiary of Singapore Airlines Ltd. Singapore Airlines (SINGY) itself does not operate any of the planes.
India has likewise grounded any 737 Max planes in service with its carriers. Jet Airways Ltd. BOM:532617 and SpiceJet BOM:500285 are the Indian airlines affected, although India is not allowing any of those models into its airspace.
Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand and Vietnam have joined 35 other nations, most of them in Europe, in temporarily barring 737 Max 8 flights from their airspace even though their carriers don’t fly the plane.
South Korea has grounded the two planes of that model flown by budget carrier Eastar Jet, and Mongolia has taken the same action with the sole version of that plane flown by MIAT Mongolian Airlines.
The biggest effect of the bans in my part of the world is felt by unlisted Lion Air, which has taken delivery of 14 of the planes. That includes the plane in question on Lion Air Flight 610, which crashed into the Java Sea on October 29, 2018, killing all 189 on board.
Indonesia has ordered the grounding of all 737 Max 8s, covering the 13 remaining Lion Air planes and the single plane of that model in service with national flagship Garuda JK:GIAA, which at one point had such an appalling safety record it was barred from flying to the European Union.
The second flight disaster to feature a Boeing 737 Max 8 is of course Sunday’s crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302. Ethiopian Airlines has grounded its remaining four 737 Max 8 planes.
The fact the Lion Air flight nosedived into the sea 12 minutes after leaving the Jakarta airport on route for Bangka Island has an eerie counterpart in the crash in Africa, where the jet climbed erratically and then crashed six minutes after departing Addis Ababa for Nairobi.
In both flights, the pilot reported trouble immediately after takeoff. With the Lion Air flight, the nose dipped down dangerously more than two dozen times, and information from the “black box” data recorder shows the pilots were trying to wrestle control of the plane from its system.
Both investigations are now examining maneuvering characteristics augmentation system, or MCAS, installed on the two crashed planes. In the case of the Lion Air flight, the plane’s computer received faulty sensor data that led the computer to believe the plane had stalled. That then caused the MCAS system to push down the nose, to avert the non-existent “stall.”
Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (CPCAY) , Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (JAPSY) and All Nippon Airways (ALNPY) do not fly the 737 Max. ANA says it is not, so far, suspending orders for 30 of the planes, pending any findings from the investigation in Ethiopia.
Among Southeast Asian airlines, Vietnam Airlines does not yet fly any of the 737 Max planes, but the carrier has 100 on order. Lion Air has 187 on order, and Garuda another 49.
The Singapore-based aircraft leasing company BOC Aviation HK:2588, the largest of its type in Asia, has five operational 737 Max aircraft that are now grounded, and another 82 on order.
AirAsia (AIABF) and its long-haul subsidiary AirAsia X don’t fly that model of plane, and neither do Thai Airways BKK:THAI, Bangkok Airways BKK:BA or Cebu Pacific CEBUY. Nok Airlines BKK:NOK in Thailand has six 737 Max on order, but isn’t yet flying any.
Nomura notes that AirAsia in particular stands to gain from the temporary grounding of the fleets of Lion Air and SilkAir, since it flies many of the same routes. SilkAir, which had been awaiting delivery of another 32 737 Max 8s, says the grounding of its planes will disrupt its schedules. It continues to fly 17 Boeing 737-800NGs, which it says are not affected.
Nomura also warns of the potential fallout if customer sentiment turns against the Boeing 737 Max. Airlines could attempt to cancel the 4,661 orders for that plane with Boeing, and lack of delivery could lead to short-term scheduling issues. Boeing delivered around 140 of the planes last year.
The Indonesian arm of AirAsia suffered its own disaster in December 2014 when Flight 8501 crashed into the Java Sea, killing all 162 on board, after departing the Javanese port city of Surabaya on route to Singapore. The plane in question was an A320 made by Airbus SE (EADSY) .
Manufacturers are also assessing any impact from the double 737 Max disasters. The Japanese chemicals company Toray Industries, Inc. (TRYIY) sells carbon fiber as a secondary structural material for use in Boeing 737 Max planes.
Although more of the company’s fiber is used in making Boeing 777 and 787 planes, Toray’s fiber sales related to this plane model are around ¥2 billion to ¥3 billion (US$18 million to US$27 million), Nomura notes. Toray should be able to absorb the hit to sales and operating profits, the brokerage says.